Austrade media releaseMonday, 1 December 2008
While the current global financial crisis has impacted on markets around the world, economic and political reforms have placed Latin America in a stronger position to handle the credit crunch and will continue to offer opportunities according to Tim Harcourt, Austrade Chief Economist.
Speaking at tonight’s Australia-Latin America Business Council (ALABC) annual dinner in Sydney, Mr Harcourt will also outline why Australia is better placed to most OECD countries to handle this crisis and how this will affect Australian-Latin American relations.
“Latin America economies are commodity-driven, and like Australia, will feel the affects of lower prices for their exports, lower terms of trade and possible impact on their currencies – but Latin America is no longer the place it was in the 1970s and 1980s,” Mr Harcourt said.
“Financial institutions are stronger in Latin America than they have been historically, with Argentina the exception with its financial institutional weakness, and the region is still expected to grow.
“Although the IMF has downgraded its forecast for Latin America, it still expects the region to achieve an economic growth rate of 4.6 per cent this year and 3.1 per cent in 2009,” Mr Harcourt said.
While Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Argentina historically have produced more than 80 per cent of Latin American gross domestic product and 90 per cent of Australia’s trade with Latin America, new opportunities are arising in adjoining economies led by economic reforms to reducing trade barriers and encouraging foreign direct investment.
“Peru leads the pack and is expected to grow by 9.2 per cent this year and 7 per cent in 2009, while Colombia - an emerging economy - expects to grow by 4 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent next year.
“The IMF also predicts similar growth across Latin America’s big four, with Argentina to record 6.5 per cent in 2008 and 3.6 per cent in 2009; Brazil 5.2 per cent and 3.5 per cent; Chile 4.5 per cent and 3.8 per cent; with Mexico (despite its dependence on the USA market) to still grow by 2.1 per cent in 2008 and 1.8 per cent in 2009,” Mr Harcourt said.
This will see new and ongoing opportunities for Australian businesses in the region across a range of sectors including mining, mining technology, education, tourism, agribusiness, animal genetics and education.
Mr Harcourt said, Peru, a mini-Chile in terms of mining and investment, offers opportunities in other areas such as agribusiness (particularly dairy), and education and tourism, attracting even greater interest after recently hosting APEC.
While Columbia, a rising star in mining across Latin America, has opportunities in agricultural science and education.
Mr Harcourt adds Australia itself is in a strong position buoyed by positive economic growth prospects of 2.5 per cent over the coming year according to latest IMF forecasts, low unemployment, greater export diversity and an attractive market for foreign direct investment.
“Australia’s share of good exports to developing countries has risen from 53 per cent compared to 43 per cent 10 years ago, with most of Australia’s trade occurring outside the G7.
“Added to this Australia’s financial markets have combined assets of more than $4.2 trillion and the world’s fourth largest pool of funds under management, which now exceeds $A1.2 trillion,” Mr Harcourt said.
Australia has been a model economy for many Latin American economies - particularly Chile - to emulate as both share many similar strengths in areas like mining, services to mining, agribusiness, and viticulture, which have provided opportunities for collaboration and joint ventures.
Event: Australia-Latin America Business Council (ALABC) 2008 Annual Dinner
When, where: Monday, 1 December 2008, Tattersalls Club, 181 Elizabeth Street, Sydney
ENDS
Media contactSarkis Khoury
Tel: +61 9390 2118
Mob: +61 414 401 072
For further news and information from the Australian Trade Commission (Austrade) visit www.austrade.gov.au//mediacentre.
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