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(Last updated: 24 Nov 2010)
Trends and opportunities
The market
Banking sector
Stock market
Debt market
Clearing houses
Trust offices
Other institutional investors
Pension funds
Insurance
Retail banking
In 2009 the Dutch central bank published a report outlining that on a European scale retail banks suffer from a declining trust level resulting in lower consumer loyalty.(Source: De Nederlandse Bank (DNB), ‘The Dutch Financial System: an investigation of current and future trends’, July 2009). In addition, profitability is under pressure due to decreasing demand for retail products because of the recession, banks being more cautious in lending, increasing levels of non-performing loans and an increase in capital requirements for financial services providers (Basel III).
In 2007, the Dutch retail market accounted for almost €13 billion in revenues, which represents almost half of the total banking market in the Netherlands. Despite a high level of concentration (three major players) competition is fierce due to high levels of transparency, a wide penetration of Internet access supporting the online channel and the presence of new entrants.
Decreasing trust levels and increased competition make it difficult to offset loss-making activities in payment systems due to a reduced capacity for cross selling of services. Also, small retail banks are experiencing greater difficulty in attracting savings in excess of €100,000 from individuals given the limit of state guarantee at that amount.
In order to counter the effects of lower volumes, higher non-performing loans and higher capital requirements, Dutch banks see themselves forced to increase profitability levels by improving customer satisfaction and introducing fair charges for payments, among other factors. Reduction of cost levels is believed to be pursued by improving both operational efficiency and non-performing loans management.
It has become apparent that the considerable losses of the banking sector in 2008 have changed into a modest profit totalling €150 million for the sector as a whole (retail and wholesale banking). The main driver for this change was an increased income from interest resulting from a higher interest spread that is not being passed on to borrowing customers. This effect was however mitigated considerably by reservations made to balance sheets.
The current situation of banks being funded by inexpensive short funding while earning an income from predominantly high yielding long term loans is expected to change as this spread is likely to decrease over time. The tendency to fund with inexpensive short money due to the spread has caused the life spans of bank funding to shorten, leading to a relatively substantial need for banks to refund their liabilities in the near future.
The current (high) number of bad loans is likely to further increase as interest rates move up. It is expected that this will lead to more reservations being made. For Europe as a whole, banks are expected to make another €185 billion in reservations in 2010.
(Source: De Nederlandse Bank (DNB), ‘The Dutch Financial System: an investigation of current and future trends’, July 2009).
Although the equity position of the Dutch banking sector is well above that of the average of the large European banks, it is still likely that Dutch banks are forced to take steps to comply with the new Basel III standards. A complicating factor could be the relatively low profitability at this moment of the Dutch sector limiting possibilities of enforcing the equity positions by retaining profits. (Source: De Nederlandse Bank, Overzicht Financiële Stabiliteit in Nederland, May 2010).
As a strategic orientation on the future of banking in the Netherlands it is believed that the lack of differentiation in service offerings and the lack of focus on segments being targeted could cause a split in the banking landscape that could be described as ‘differentiation in the front office versus consolidation in the back office’.
Despite an internal (efficiency) focus during the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC) several pushes towards cooperation can be distinguished:
- The necessity to build international networks
- Building alliances in order to achieve product differentiation
- Considerable investments to make the banking infrastructure ready for new requirements (such as SEPA)
- Technological developments having to be carried broadly in order to justify successful setting of standards (for example in mobile payments)
- Cross selling of particularly insurance products in an environment where banking and insurance activities are increasingly separated into different legal entities
(Source: FD Outlook 'Banking landscape falling apart' by Ard-Pieter de Man, September 2010)
Corporate banking
The Dutch corporate banking market is slightly smaller than the retail market, with 2007 revenues estimated slightly above €9.5 billion. (Source: De Nederlandse Bank (DNB), ‘The Dutch Financial System: an investigation of current and future trends’, July 2009). Overall revenue and cost levels are of Dutch corporate banks are below Western European levels. The low Dutch revenue margins are partly the result of a relatively low share of mid-corporates and relatively high levels of collateralised (lower yielding) loans. Lower costs are the result of a smaller branch network, and the lower risk costs can be ascribed to a historically low risk profile of Dutch corporates.
Recent changes in ownership of the Dutch banking sector as well as the withdrawal of some US based banks from the Netherlands have led to a lower number of banks available to service the large Dutch corporates. This, and the fact that large corporates tend to have a need for service by multiple corporate banks, has resulted in this segment of the market being entered by foreign banks such as Société Générale and BNP Paribas. (Source: Het Financieele Dagblad, October 2010). Unlike large corporates that have a higher buying power, mid-corporate clients with foreign activities might have fewer options because of the limited availability of Dutch banks with a foreign international network.
In the coming years a large amount of funding will mature and will require refinancing. A general rule is that credit risk management capabilities will remain extremely important in the short future. Players who are highly dependent on wholesale funding or securitisation need to re-evaluate their funding model, depending on the opportunities on capital markets.
Capital markets and investment banking (CMIB)
After 2007 as an exceptionally good year with revenues of nearly €5 billion primarily due to significant M&A activity the CMIB market has shown a substantial downturn. In the Dutch CMIB markets various type of players are active: global players, regional players, national players and boutiques. Global players hold approximately 50 per cent in revenue share serving the markets often from another financial hub. Dutch players have been losing market share to the global players over time, especially in the segment of large corporates and institutions. (Source: De Nederlandse Bank (DNB), ‘The Dutch Financial System: an investigation of current and future trends’, July 2009).
Currently fees for advisory work are under pressure due to the transaction market having come to a halt. Prospects for the near future are positive for the advisory side of the market in the sense that several Dutch financial services institutions are selling off parts of the business or require assistance issuing new shares. The most important potential clients here are ING Group, ASR Nederland (former Fortis Netherlands insurance activities), ABN Amro and Aegon, jointly representing an estimated €500 million in advisory fees resulting from transactions totalling an estimated €34+ billion. (Source: Het Financieele Dagblad, August 2010).
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