June 2012 International Data Comparisons (IDC)28 June 2012Download Austrade’s International Data Comparisons (IDC). It is an easy-to-read comparison of Australia’s performance and position across key economic and financial related indicators. The IDC has been updated to include data effective to 15 June 2012. Points of interest include: - In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) confirms that Australia’s economic fundamentals are strong with the real GDP growth projected to outperform every major advanced economy in 2012 and 2013. The Australian economy will likely grow by 3.0 per cent in 2012 and 3.5 per cent in 2013. These rates are broadly in line with Australian Treasury’s projections. Looking forward, Australia’s economy is estimated to grow by an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent between 2012 and 2017. This rate will well exceed that of the USA, Canada, the UK, and is more than double that of Japan, France, Germany and Italy.
- Australia’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1 per cent in the March quarter following no change in the December 2011 quarter. CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the March 2012 quarter, compared with a rise of 3.1 per cent through the year to the December 2011 quarter. The trimmed mean for the March quarter, year-on-year, stands at 2.2 per cent, within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band of 2 to 3 per cent.
- Australia’s unemployment rate has edged up by 0.1 points to 5.1 per cent from April to May. Year-on-year, the unemployment rate has risen 0.2 points. The ABS stated that full-time employment increased by 46,100 (0.6 per cent) in May while part-time employment decreased by 7,200 (0.2 per cent). The Australian unemployment rate remains low compared to other advanced economies including Canada (7.3 per cent), the UK (8.2 per cent), the US (8.2 per cent), France (9.6 per cent), and Italy (9.8 per cent).
- Australia’s two-way trade with China in 2011 was A$121 billion. China was Australia’s largest two-way trading partner, as well as Australia’s largest export market (A$77 billion) and source of imports (A$44 billion). Japan remains Australia’s second largest trading partner with a total two-way trade value of A$73. The US remains a significant trading partner with a two-way value of A$54 billion.
- At the June 2012 meeting, the RBA Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent, effective June 6. The latest move followed the 50 basic point interest cut on 2 May 2012. The RBA noted in that “recent domestic data generally had not suggested a significant weakening in conditions compared with the forecasts a month earlier.” The Central Bank also indicated that there was clear evidence suggesting a softening in global conditions, and uncertainty about the future in Europe had increased significantly.
- IMF latest statistics show the low levels of General Government Net Debt as a percentage of GDP in Australia compared to other economies. Net debt is a commonly quoted measure of a government’s financial strength. The IMF forecast for 2012 in Australia is 9.5 per cent of GDP while the forecast for Japan is 135.2 per cent, Italy 102.3 per cent, the UK 84.2 per cent, the US 83.7 per cent, and France 83.2 per cent.
- On 12 June 2012, Moody’s confirmed that the outlook for Australia’s Aaa foreign and local currency ratings remains stable. The credit agency stated that Australia’s economic strength is very high, based on the country’s economic diversity, economic performance during the past two decades, relatively good growth outlook and high income per capita. Moody’s assesses Australia’s institutional strength as very high, a classification shared by all Aaa-rated countries and reflecting overall governance, rule of law, effective monetary and regulatory institutions, and transparency. Moody’s notes that even at its peak, Commonwealth government and general government debt remains low by global standards, and the 2012-2013 budget forecasts a renewed downward trend in debt. As a result, the Commonwealth will continue to have one of the strongest financial positions among Aaa-rated governments. The report also notes that Australia has very low susceptibility to event risk.
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