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Tim Harcourt
Chief Economist
Australian Trade Commission
Sydney
Email: tim.harcourt@austrade.gov.au
19 December 2005
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Pru Goward and Kate Fischer with Tim Harcourt at the Sydney launch of Beyond our Shores
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Thankyou Peter, Ross, Pru & Kate and all of you for coming...
I thought I would round off tonight’s presentation with the story behind the book Beyond Our Shores...
Firstly, I should explain the cover (although, as they say you can’t judge the book by it). Of course, after much thought and debate we settled on the Australian icon of the beach to symbolize Beyond Our Shores. I’ve also thought the beach has a special meaning for all Australians – from all backgrounds. For instance, my own grandfather, Ken Harcourt was an original Bondi lifesaver. But there’s a story to this. Ken was originally named, Kopel Harkowitz, the son of immigrants from Transylvania (which is sometimes considered Romania, sometimes Hungary – if I am talking to Frank Lowy, it’s definitely, Hungary) and Poland. Kopel’s mother always wanted to him to be a Rabbi, but young Kopel wanted to be a true blue Aussie lifesaver at Bondi. He had trouble getting in the club as Kopel Harkowitz but when he fronted as Ken Harcourt, they said ‘no worries’. So that’s why I am a Harcourt, and why the beach is on the cover of Beyond Our Shores. When I asked my grandfather why he changed his name, he used to say “Well, I didn’t really, I just went from the Goldberg’s to the Ice Bergs”.
So that’s the cover explained, now let’s turn to the book itself...
The book’s genesis basically lies in my original interest in trade issues and the need to understand them…and it stems back from when I worked as a research officer with the ACTU in the early 1990s.
In my first month or so at the ACTU, I was asked by my then boss, Bill Kelty, what policy issues I would like to work on “apart from my day job” (my day job being the economic submissions for the national wages case and industrial work – the bread and butter for all ACTU officials).
When I replied “trade…and Aboriginal affairs”, Bill remarked “Well that’s good, because no one else wants to do trade – it’s so boring and low-profile.”
Well I was a happy as Larry, and as it happened, trade did become high profile with the GATT Uruguay Round, the WTO, NAFTA and APEC… and the like. The then Trade Minister, the late Peter Cook, a great Australian, appointed me to a number of trade committees and gave me a lot of support and advice (as did Bob McMullan, Tim Fischer and now, Mark Vaile).
In fact I got so interested in trade, that I decided to do it full-time. Luckily for me, in 1999, I got a real break in being appointed to the Australian Trade Commission (Austrade). Coincidentally, 1999 was a watershed in trade policy with the famous Battle for Seattle, where protestors clashed with riot police at the WTO meeting in the (other) emerald city. Why did Seattle – this hub of globalisation, with successful global brands like Microsoft, Boeing and Starbucks, and symbols of popular culture, Jimi Hendrix, Nirvana, Frasier become the scene of a wave of anti-globalisation and anti-WTO protests? It certainly wasn’t ‘Sleepless in Seattle’ in November 1999.
Well – it seemed from Seattle, that despite economists knowing that more benefits will flow to the international community from having an open trading system, than a closed one, the public – or many elements of it – didn’t agree. I came to the conclusion that economists had not done their job properly in explaining the benefits of international trade and in what circumstances they come about. Economists may know that the case for trade and globalisation has been around ‘since Moses was in short pants’ (to quote Peter Munckton) but it is still up to economists to explain why trade and openness is a good thing, and persuade the community of their case.
That’s why I decided to write this book (which is a compilation of press articles written for both Australian publications and some international journals). As Ross says in the foreword to Beyond Our Shores, there’s no point economists talking just to each other, we have to get out into the schools and universities, into offices and factories, into publications of all types, onto TV, ipods, websites, and dare I say it, talk-back radio. (I did go on John Laws a few times, but he wanted me to plug a specific group of exporters, for some reason...).
Accordingly, the book is organised around a few key themes.
The first theme is basically about the debate between the global advocates and the global-sceptics that came to a head in the Battle for Seattle. One of the key messages in the chapter is the benefits of trade for the labour market. ‘Why Exports are Good for Workers’, explains why over time, exporting businesses raise average wages levels, productivity, occupational health and safety standards, and job security, regardless of industry or firm-size. In fact, I am sure had I published this in 1999, instead of the week of the ACTU Congress in 2000, all the demonstrators would have seen the power point slides and said ‘why didn’t you tell us’ and gone home.
The second theme, is about the information age or the ‘the new economy’ that was so much in the news when I joined Austrade. Newspaper commentators claimed that the global economy was being changed in a fundamental way by the Internet Revolution e-commerce and associated technologies. This goes to the so-called ‘old-economy-new-economy’ debate. I recall the chief scientist, saying after the Sydney Olympics, that the Australian dollar would fall to US 30 cents, unless we got out of ‘old economy’ industries and into the ‘new economy’ (and became some sort of southern Taiwan). Of course, since then the prices of our ‘old economy’ exports have risen and the ‘new economy’ imports have fallen, giving Australia a huge life in terms of trade (with the dollar appreciating rather than falling). However, there are important stories in the book about the capacity of many of our old economy industries, in mining and farming becoming new economy exporters through knowledge-based services and software.
In addition, our research found a link between information technology and the growth of young(ish) entrepreneurs going global from day one in ‘Can Generation X become Generation eXport’.
The third theme is about external shocks such as:
- September 11
- SARS
- Exchange rates
- & Oil Shocks
In fact, on exchange rates, I recall one piece about the dollar (titled ‘Living in the ‘70s), which I wrote when the dollar was in the mid-60s. After it shot to 70, the Reserve Bank called me and said to either stop writing about the exchange rate, or at the very least, update my CD collection beyond Skyhooks (as opposed to Beyond Our Shores).
The fourth theme is about how different markets sell themselves to Australian exporters and potential exporters. The articles are organised into different geographic regions and draw upon the many exporters, business people and Trade Commissioners I have come across in my travels.
Of course, it’s a matter of ‘horses for courses’. Some markets are easier to get exposure than others. As Laurie Smith, our regional director in Shanghai says ‘China sells itself’. Especially as over this time, China has further integrated itself in the global economy (with the Great Wall of trade barriers slowly coming down). For example, I have tried to give Japan a run in “Land of the Greying Sun’ and the rest of North East Asia a Guernsey too.
In the Americas, the USA has great exposure thanks to us ‘Going all the way with the FTA’, so I try to give the Latin Americans a go.
However, in 2002, at the time of the Argentine economic crisis, I perhaps should have taken Australian Latin American Business Council head honcho Jose Blanco’s advice not have used the title ‘Don’t buy from me, Argentina’.
In the Middle East, we’ve kept it balanced with a ‘Mecca for our Exports’ in Dubai, but with ‘Tim Tams in Tel Aviv’, Israel’s importance – especially in science, technology and human capital – is also recognised.
In Africa, having worked for Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the African National Congress (ANC) in 1995 in the early days of President Nelson Mandela’s post-apartheid administration, I got a chance revisit the country – and its economic links with Australia in ‘A Tale of Two Economies’.
In Europe, we’ve had European integration, enlargement, (some say entanglement), and the introduction of the common currency, the euro. However, some smaller European states struggle to get recognition so we use any event we can – See ‘There’s something About Mary’. (However, I have resisted Austrade Copenhagen’s request to do an econometric study of the export of King Island cheese to Denmark).
Of course, emerging markets is always a big topic in trade. Countries like Russia have been keen to be grouped together with other emerging economies. Goldman Sachs in a famous report talked about the rise of ‘the BRICS’ – Brazil, Russia, India and China. It’s amazing how people are so into acronyms. All I can say is that I am glad that Turkey, Uzbekistan, Romania and Denmark have no economic characteristics in common.
The final theme is really about how to sell trade. As exciting as trade and economics is to me, I know that many Australians don’t always share that passion. Accordingly, looking for a trade story in more prominent events is a way of getting the message out.
So in the book, we have articles on:
- Hollywood, and the roles that our most famous exports like Nicole and Russell play (ok I know he’s an Australasian)
- Bollywood – after all, as they say, if you’re not in Mumbai you’re just camping out...
- Major sporting events – like The Olympics, and our famous athletes, The Commonwealth Games, The Football and Rugby World Cups, The Melbourne Cup, the Grand Prix and of course in an Indian context, Cricket
- Finally culture – both traditional and popular, whether it be our great indigenous art
- or Kath and Kim, it helps sell our message (with their unique phrase ‘exporting makes you effluent’)
In closing, I have a few thankyous as this book has been the work of many.
Unfortunately, two very talented young women – who were instrumental in the project – Dharsh Khandiah and H. Shash can’t be here today. Dharsh is having a well earned break before helping run the Commonwealth games with Business Club Australia, and H. Shash is in Geneva, as she was selected recently for a fellowship in Europe.
Thanks also to:
Jaimy Walter and his team at Walter Wakefield did a fabulous, creative job along with George Braine and company from Link Printing.
James Lotherington – Austrade’s true Mod – has done amazing work with great professionalism and dedication along with Emily Chong.
Karla Davies, who has done a fantastic job with in her media skills networks, Leigh Derigo for her work with economics and business teachers in schools and universities and Tim Sinclair has really spruced up the ‘economists corner’ page on the Austrade web site: www.austrade.gov.au/economistscorner.
Vince Smith of NSW Department of State and Regional Development and Gerard Seeber for the best view in town!
Casella wines – Australian Exporter of the Year and an exporter prominently featured in Beyond Our Shores.
Peter O’Byrne, Austrade’s Managing Director for strongly supporting this book concept, together with Austrade executives past and present, Leith Doody, Margaret Lyons, Hamish McCormick, Rob O’Meara and Austrade colleagues throughout our global network.
Peter Switzer – a fine journalist, economist and communicator. There’s no better commentator on small business than Peter, and he and his wife Maureen have amazing energy and entrepreneurial flair. Peter is also head of the MC’s trade union – so check with him first if you want to do a gig in this city.
Ross Gittins – who has been a real mentor to me and many “Gen X” economists in the markets, public policy and academia. When you go to the best unis in the world the people at the top – the Nobel laureates etc – all have time to help you and share their ideas, advice and experience with you. In my experience, Ross is like that – and I have really benefited from his generosity.
Thanks also to many other colleagues from journalism and economics from the newspapers (SMH, The Australian, Daily Telegraph, The Age, my hometown paper Adelaide Advertiser), magazines (Dynamic Small Business, My Export, Asia Today, Export), the electronic media, Australian Business Economists ABE, the various chambers of Commerce and export Institutes, the Reserve Bank, DFAT and the Trade Minister’s Office , DHL, The Lowy Institute and the Centre for Corporate Change at the Australian Graduate School of Management (AGSM) and most of all the export companies themselves who have really helped me and are listed in the book. Many of you are here – so thanks for coming.
And finally a big thankyou to the Goward-Fischer family. I have known Pru Goward nearly all my life and she has been a great inspiration to many woman and many men as well. She’s her own person, she can cut to the chase and get to the heart of the issue and be a very strong advocate. She has also been very generous to Austrade with our women in export programme.
And to Pru’s wonderful daughters, Katie and Penny. This year my wife Jo Bosben and I met our little daughter Yun Shi Yang Harcourt in China and brought her home to be with us. Before the arrival of Yun Shi, my only experience with children was looking after my sisters’ kids and before that, as a teenager, babysitting, Kate and Penny. These two girls, before they grew up to be such accomplished, intelligent young women, were bright, cheeky and lively and were a great experience for me for when a bright, cheeky and lively Yun Shi came on the scene this year. If there is a factor X driving China’s economy, for me there’s also a factor Y!
Thanks very much for coming and I hope you have a good time tonight and enjoy Beyond Our Shores.
Thankyou. |