Trade Winds

03 Mar 2017


  • Tim Quinn
  • Trade Winds

This week’s readings provide views and analysis on the global economy.

  • The IMF asks whether continued weaker economic growth in advanced economies is the new norm following the ‘Great Recession’.

  • China’s economy accounts for fifteen per cent of world GDP, thirteen per cent of global trade in goods, holds about thirty per cent of global foreign exchange reserves, and accounts for a third of global GDP growth. Yet despite such impressive shares, the OECD says the renminbi is only now beginning to emerge as a factor in the global economy.

  • The OECD’s latest Economic Survey of India finds that the acceleration of structural reforms and the move toward a rule-based macroeconomic policy framework are sustaining the country’s longstanding rapid economic expansion. Productivity is required in the agricultural sector which in turn will lead to increased urbanisation. Additionally, the ANZ Bank’s BlueNotes discusses how the Indian economy is adapting to mobile-commerce after 86 per cent of cash was withdrawn in 2016.

  • From PIIE: Brexit may lead to a loss in revenue for London’s financial sector of between twelve and eighteen per cent and seven to eight per cent drop in employment.

  • A new era for Australia-Indonesia trade: AIIA on Indonesian President Widodo’s visit to Australia.

  • This week’s ABS National Accounts reported Australia’s economy grew by 1.1 per cent in the December quarter reversing the September quarter decline. SGS Economics and Planning analysis shows Sydney’s output represents almost a quarter of national GDP and contributed almost forty per cent to national GDP growth. In its Economic Survey of Australia 2017, the OECD notes that Australia has a ‘good track record’, has a significant margin to absorb shocks and actively stimulate growth, ‘but challenges lie ahead’.